The results of recent
Assembly elections in three States, the Lok Sabha election in May last, and
eight by-elections to Assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu so far, leave many
a messages, if not lessons, for pollsters, political commentators, psephologists,
media, political parties, politicians and also the people in general.
In the Assembly elections
held in the states of Maharashtra, Haryana and Arunachal Pradesh, the Congress
and its ally (in Maharashtra) humbled the
Opposition and romped home to power. In fact, in Maharashtra
and Arunachal Pradesh the Congress increased its tally. The election results
show that the BJP is losing its stature as a national party. They further show
that the people are increasingly opting for the Congress, responding faith in
the leadership of UPA Chairperson Tmt. Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Dr.
Manmohan Singh, particularly in the absence of any charismatic leader in these
states. The reported view of some in the Congress that the Party, following the
UP model, should go alone in the elections in Maharashtra,
obviously was not acceptable to Tmt. Sonia Gandhi. The poll results indicate
the effective leadership being provided by her.
On the other hand, brave
hopes and braver words have failed the BJP. Simply put, the party has failed to
enthuse the voters. This is more a comment on the party’s leadership than on
its agenda of governance which, tragically, appears increasingly immaterial.
The BJP leadership lacks originality and is only interested in a jumbling of
words to assassinate the personal character of the Congress leadership. Their
acerbic comments like ‘annihilating the Congress’ and writing its ‘obituary’ of
the ‘old party’ has boomeranged on itself. (Beware Jayalalithas, Vijayakanths
et al.)
et al.)
The steady decline to the
point of dissipation of Bal Thackeray’s Shiv Sena in Maharashtra
sends out message of warning to sectarian and parochial forces – that they can
appeal to the masses for sometime but not all the time. His nephew Raj
Thackeray, who leads MNS, will learn the lesson after sometime. If the uncle
spit venom and led violent attacks against South Indians to appease Marathi
sentiments in the 1960s, the nephew now has turned his ire against the North
Indians. The once ‘irrepressible’ elder Thackeray has now mellowed and in
dejection lamented and cursed Marathis of having betrayed him.
In a democracy, retaining
power is much more difficult than regaining it. Now the Congress has
accomplished the task in these three states. Earlier in the month of May, the
United Progressive Alliance led by the party did that ‘magic’ and sailed
through to the corridors of power, significantly with added strength – despite
some earlier constituents of the alliance leaving the boat, not on any
political or ideological differences (as it happened in the case of the NDA led
by the BJP) but on seat allocation in some states. In yet another case the DMK
alliance after emerging victorious in the 2006 Assembly elections and the DMK
forming the government in Tamil Nadu, won all the eight byelections to the
State Assembly – Madurai Central, Madurai West, Tirumangalam, Tondamuthur,
Bargur, Cumbum, Srivaikundam and Ilayangudi – with more votes and capturing
many of them from other opposition parties. Also, the DMK alliance repeated its
success story in the Parliament election defeating a grand alliance of the
opposition and disproving media projection.
How come all these
‘miracles’ happen if the much fancied cliche phrase ‘anti-incumbency factor’ is
valid? Still media commentators and columnists harp on saying ‘despite
anti-incumbency factor’ and refuse to admit that it was not operative even
prior to the polls. With sixty years of experience in this system, the people
of India
have come of age and are conversant with the nuances of politics and government
administration. They can by themselves make the distinction between good rule
and bad one, good party/ alliance and the bad etc. In fact, the politics of
coalition that has come to stay now at the Centre is the outcome of the
maturity of the Indian electorate, who have silently made and unmade
governments whatever be the cry of the so-called ‘opinion-makers’ – the media.
If they are convinced that a particular rule is in their interest, they don’t
hesitate to give their verdict in favour of the party/alliance that lead it in
any number of elections, especially when the ‘real’ agenda of the opposition
parties is malafide notwithstanding their bonafide pretentions. But their voice
is silence while the disgruntled elements in the society are vociferous and
make all noices and din. The media is carried away by the latter and assumes
that it is the ‘voice of the people’. In a sense the media appears primitive,
adamantly refusing to self-introspect when its ‘prophesies’ go awry and ascribe
alibis such as ‘money power’, which again is an insult to the common man.
If ‘money power’ can win
an election, then why did Jayalalitha loose to a relatively unknown youth in
Bargur constituency (in 1996), which she nurtured by offering lavish alms to
the people of the constituency and as if all those ‘gestures’ were not enough
distributing gold rings concealed in ‘laddus’ to the voters a day before
polling. If she lost that election (or the 2006 one), it was not because of
‘anti-incumbency factor’ but because of her corrupt, autocratic and notorious
misrule.
Unless and until the media
realize its folly and acknowledge the end of this electoral myth, it can never
be objective and all its projections will end as its predilections, as it did
during the last Lok Sabha polls!
(1-11-09)
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